The Monty Hall Problem

You’re on a game show, and you’re given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what’s behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, “Do you want to pick door No. 2?”

Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?

Will you switch or stay with your door?

Note : Monty Hall was the host of game show called 'Let's Make a Deal' on which above puzzle is based. (Source-Wikipedia)



This is what you should do! 

Winning The Monty Hall Game Show

What was the game show?

Suppose you always choose DOOR 1. Then host will open DOOR 2 or DOOR 3 behind which car is not there.

If the car is behind the DOOR 1, then host will open the DOOR 2 or DOOR 3. And if you switch to remaining DOOR 3 or DOOR 2, you will find goat behind it & you will loose.

And if the car is behind the DOOR 2, then host will be forced to open DOOR 3. Now, if you switch your choice to DOOR 2 then you will win the car behind that door.

Again, if the car is behind the DOOR 3, then host has to open the DOOR 2 behind which goat is there. And now if you switch your selection from DOOR 1 to DOOR 3, then you will be winning the car.

So out of 3 possibilities, in 2 you will be winning this game show if you switch your choice. The probability of winning the game show is 2/3.

And if you stay with your first choice, then probability of having car behind selected door is 1/3.

To conclude, it's better to switch the choice as it increases the probability of winning the game show from 1/3 to 2/3.