The Little Johnny's Dilemma

Little Johnny is walking home. He has $300 he has to bring home to his mom. While he is walking a man stops him and gives him a chance to double his money. 

The man says -

 "I'll give you $600 if you can roll 1 die and get a 4 or above, you can roll 2 dice and get a 5 or 6 on at least one of them, or you can roll 3 dice and get a 6 on at least on die. If you don't I get your $300."
 
What does Johnny do to have the best chance of getting home with the money?

THIS is the BEST he can do! 

The Loss Making Deal !

What was the deal?


The little Johnny should not accept the deal.

The problem is actually finding the probability of winning in each case dice throw.

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CASE 1 :  

Condition - Roll a die and get 4 or above.

The probability in the case is 3/6 = 1/2 (getting 4,5,6 from 6 possible outcomes). 

That is only 50% chances of winning the deal.

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CASE 2 :

Condition - Roll 2 dice and a 5 or 6 on at least one of them.

Let's find the probability that none get a 5 or 6. 

Probability that single die doesn't get a 5 or 6 is 4/6 = 2/3 by getting 1,2,3,4 in possible 6 outcomes.

Since, these 2 results are independent, the probability that neither dice gets a 5 or 6 is 2/3 x 2/3 = 4/9.

So, the probability that at least one of them gets a 5 or 6 is 1 - 4/9 = 5/9.

That is, about 56% chances of winning the deal.

By other approach, there are 36 possible combinations in 2 dice throw.

(1, 1) (1, 2) (1, 3) (1, 4) (1, 5) (1, 6)

(2, 1) (2, 2) (2, 3) (2, 4) (2, 5) (2, 6)

(3, 1) (3, 2) (3, 3) (3, 4) (3, 5) (3, 6)

(4, 1) (4, 2) (4, 3) (4, 4) (4, 5) (4, 6)

(5, 1) (5, 2) (5, 3) (5, 4) (5, 5) (5, 6)

(6, 1) (6, 2) (6, 3) (6, 4) (6, 5) (6, 6) 

There are total 20 combinations (last 2 rows and 2 columns) where at least one die gets a 5 or 6.

Hence, the probability in the case is 20/36 = 5/9 i.e. about 56% of winning chances.

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CASE 3 : 

Condition - Roll three dice and get a 6 on at least on die.  

Again finding probability that none gets a 6.

Probability that single die doesn't get a 6 is 5/6 by getting 1,2,3,4,5 out of 6 possible outcomes.

Hence, the probability that three dices doesn't get a 6 = 5/6 x 5/6 x 5/6 = 125/216.

Then the probability that at least one of them get a 6 = 1 - 125/216 = 91/216 

That is only 42% chances of winning the deal.

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On the other hand Johnny can be 100% sure that he will take $300 to home if he doesn't accept the man's deal.